The world isn’t just changing; it’s accelerating into chaos: from escalations across the Middle East to shifting security frameworks and crucial elections among our partner nations, the global landscape is being entirely rewritten. But what does this actually mean for Ukrainian tech sector?

Diia.City United recently sat down with our member companies’ leaders and top-tier experts — diplomat Vadym Prystaiko, military analyst Oleksandr Musiienko, investment banker Serhiy Fursa, and Middle East scholar Ihor Semyvolos — to cut through the noise.

Here are the most consequential takeaways.

The Middle East: Not WWIII, But No One Knows What Comes Next

Ihor Semyvolos didn’t mince words: we are watching a massive regional war unfold, driven primarily by Israel and Iran. Iran’s old doctrine of fighting via proxies in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon has failed, and the war has now arrived on their own doorstep.

For Ukraine, the strategic maths is simple. Iran supplies russia with Shahed drones and components; therefore, a collapse of the regime in Tehran is very much in our national interest. But we shouldn’t view this through rose-tinted glasses — the attendant risks of a wider fallout are substantial.

The Brutal Maths of Air Defence 

 

«In January alone, russia launched 91 ballistic missiles against our country. The mathematics are brutal — there is currently no alternative to American-supplied munitions.» — Musiienko stressed. 

It’s a grim picture, but manageable if the Middle East cools down soon. Crucially, though, he reminded us that air campaigns alone don’t win wars — ground operations remain the ultimate decider.

The Economy: No Need for Panic, Just Pragmatism

Serhiy Fursa offered a reality check for both the doomsayers and the optimists. The direct hit to Ukraine from the Middle East conflict? Mostly just a bump in inflation and higher fuel costs.

The real headache is russia’s sudden cash injection. Just as Western sanctions were genuinely starting to bite, the Gulf escalation handed moscow an unexpected $5 billion revenue boost in a matter of days. Fursa concludes:
 

If the global conflict doesn’t settle down quickly, we’ll all be dealing with the economic hangover for years.

 

Defence Tech: Our Fleeting «Golden Share»

Foreign money is already flowing into Ukrainian defence tech. Musiienko stressed that right now, we hold a unique «golden share» — we can show the rest of the world how to fight the wars of tomorrow. But this window of opportunity will close, gradually but irreversibly.

Vadym Prystaiko threw some cold water on the current frenzy: as long as every drone still needs a human operator, the technology isn’t truly mature. The current fervour is a hype cycle, and it will be short-lived.

Conclusions

Geopolitical shifts in the Middle East are reshaping global markets. For Ukraine, they are an open window of opportunity.

At our recent discussion with experts in diplomacy, investment, security, and Middle East studies, one point came through very clearly: this is a real window for Ukrainian tech business — and we should not waste it:

  • Defence Tech is the anchor. Especially our battle-proven solutions against Shahed drones. Gulf countries and NATO allies are eager to shore up their security infrastructure, and they’re looking to Ukraine for answers
  • AI & SaaS follow the wedge. Once trust is established through defence, enterprise software runs after. Reliability, cost-efficiency, and rapid adaptation are the metrics prized above all else in the region.
  • The timing is unusually aligned. The UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have long been growth markets for our tech sector. Now, demand, capital, and the global security context are perfectly assembled.

For Ukrainian companies, this is a moment to move, scale partnerships, structure export channels, and go toward long-term global presence.

 

Huge thanks to our speakers for their deep-dive insights: Vadym Prystaiko, a senior Ukrainian diplomat (Ambassador to the UK in 2020–2023, Vice Prime Minister in 2020, and Minister of Foreign Affairs in 2019–2020, Head of the Mission to NATO in 2017–2019, and Ambassador to Canada in 2012–2014), Serhiy Fursa (Deputy Director, Dragon Capital), Ihor Semyvolos (Executive Director, Centre for Middle Eastern Studies), Oleksandr Musiienko (Head, Сentre for Military Law Research).