On December 3, we hosted FutureTech Meetup: United for 2026 — a major event by the tech business association Diia.City United.
We brought together over 200 leaders from the tech sector, government, civil society, and industry associations. The conversation focused on a critical question: What state will Ukraine be in as we enter 2026, and what does the year hold for business?
Andrii Dligach, PhD in Economics and founder of Advanter Group, presented a macroeconomic forecast for 2026 along with middle-term scenarios for the development of the Ukrainian economy.
«The baseline scenario for the coming year anticipates the possibility of a geopolitical agreement. This should provide us with breathing room and time to prepare for the next phase of the confrontation, but most importantly, time for the country’s technological and economic transformation».
The Core Message: The Old Model Is Dead
Ukraine’s traditional competitive advantages — cheap and skilled labor, affordable energy, and favorable geography — have actually been diminished by the war. We can no longer build a national strategy upon them.
Instead, we need a transition to a more complex, innovative economic model driven by high added value. And the time to build it is now.
Where We Stand Today
According to Advanter Group data, only 15% of businesses currently rate their financial and economic situation as ‘good’ (compared to 35% in 2004). It is worth noting that companies that are members of associations or unions report better performance and higher expectations.
The Ukrainian Business Index is currently in a negative expectations zone, with entrepreneurs citing the following as key barriers to development:
- Mistrust of the state
- Shortage of capital and human resources
- A complex tax system and regulations
- The inability to predict the ‘rules of the game’
The Goal: A New Economy
To enter a target growth track, Ukraine needs to:
- Change its investment logic.
- Ensure domestic investment growth of 20–25% annually.
- Attract approximately $300 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI).
The key to achieving these lies in economic complexity. We must move away from a raw-material model toward technologically intensive production, creative industries, and R&D. Tech entrepreneurship must become the core of this new system.
This is only possible if the IT and tech sectors become the drivers of exports, creating high-value jobs and localizing R&D and intellectual property within Ukraine.
Human Capital
Today, the average labor productivity in Ukraine is approximately $20,000 per employee yearly. This is significantly lower than in the markets we benchmark ourselves against, such as Poland, the Czech Republic, or Romania.
The irreversible reality of the coming years is a shrinking workforce. Therefore, maximizing the productivity of every specialist is a key to business survival.
Key tasks for Ukraine in this area:
- Modernize energy infrastructure.
- Invest in the well-being and mental health of teams.
- Unite businesses into communities for mutual support and knowledge exchange.
Exports as a Condition for Survival
Ukraine currently faces a significant trade imbalance: exports stand at roughly $40 billion, while imports reach $90 billion. Although much of this gap is caused by defense needs and essential imports, it does not eliminate the need to act.
Radically increasing exports is the only path forward. Technology and creative companies must become the flagships leading this charge in foreign markets.
Time for Ambition
«We have forgotten how to think, dream, and act big»,
emphasized Andrii Dligach.
Based on the expert’s presentation, we can arrive at a highly applicable conclusion: the concept of ‘affordable outsourcing in Ukraine’ is no longer viable. Our new economy must be based on IT, Tech, Defense Tech, product development, and creative industries.
Although 2026 may not bring the long-term normalization we all seek, it should be the year when the tech community establishes a new direction toward an innovation economy.
This is a difficult path that is better traveled together. Diia.City United exists to unite business efforts and turn common challenges into opportunities for the entire Ukrainian tech sector
